Before we get too far into 2017 I think that we should look back at how 2016 played out. Studying the past and learning from it is important for all investors.

There were a lot of stories in 2016, some of those stories were even bigger than Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys.

1. China: Early in 2016 Chinese stocks crashed, that coupled with fears of a slowdown in Chinese economic growth weighed on markets pushing markets into correction territory. On 1/21/16 I wrote here that the market downturn had all the indications of a correction and not a bear market. I explained then that a decrease in China GDP growth is natural and that the estimates of +6% growth on the increasing base would be a positive force for continued global economic expansion. No economy can grow GDP in the double digits perpetually. Official numbers are not yet in, but it looks like China GDP growth for 2016 will be ~6-7%. The bear market in Chinese did not spread to global stocks as a whole, once again as predicted.

2. Oil Prices: In addition to the China fears, fears related to low oil prices weighed on markets early in 2016 and contributed to the early market correction. In the same piece (see here) I explained that while the energy sector is hurt from low oil prices, it is really a wash in economic growth terms. Eventually the markets, and the economic data proved me right.

3. Brexit: On June 23 the UK voted to withdraw from the European Union. Prior to the vote most experts predicted that the Brexit vote would fail and that the UK would remain in the European Union. Additionally most experts warned that if by the slightest chance the Brexit did occur, that it would surely lead to recession. In both cases the experts were wrong. UK stocsk dropped -5.6% over the next two days, but they bounced back just as quickly and have been climbing with global stocks since.

4. The Fed: The year of several rate hikes and rising interest rates never really came. Meeting after meeting, the Fed continued to kick the can down the road citing: concerns over interest rates, China, Brexit, etc., only to finally have the first rate hike of the year come in December post the US presidential election.

5. US Presidential Coverage: The major story all year was the US presidential election. During the course of the year US stocks (and world stocks) seemed to move based on perceived shifts in the probabilities of the election results. Pretty much the entire year experts pointed to movements in the markets as an indication that a Trump win was unlikely and that it would be bad for stocks. I wrote here that I believed Clinton would win the election, but that a Trump victory would likely come with some downside volatility and a market correction (not a bear market). The downside push came and went fast, and markets rose steadily after the initial down shock of the election.

Conclusion: The bull market continued in 2016. It was a good year to own stocks, US stocks in particular had a good year. World economic growth continued in 2016 despite the fears it would not.  

                                                                                                                              – Wyatt Swartz

Written 1/12/17

“Same old story, same old song, Goes all right till it goes all wrong…Same old story, same old song”  — B.B. King

In terms of political market drivers, there is a lot that might be described as the “same old story” right now. I wrote in June here about presidential politics and their historical relationship to US stock market movements. In that post I explained that typically US stocks do very well in an election year. Optimism about the new president push sentiment in a pretty positive direction.

I think it is safe to say right now, there sentiment is on the rise post-election and that rising sentiment has been moving markets. US stocks ended 2016 in double digits with the SPY returning +11.2%, and ~2.5% of that return coming post election.

World stocks ended 2016 +5.99% as judged by the Vanguard World Stock ETF (VT).

The optimism and historical trend for election years played out in 2016. Will the dissatisfaction of inaugural years play out in 2017 for US stocks?

If 2017 sees a sentiment driven decline in US stocks it will be “the same old story, same old song” that we’ve seen before.

                                                                                                            – Wyatt Swartz

Written 1/8/2017

Coming into the week the S&P 500 was at +12.84% YTD returns, and the MSCI EAFE was at +0.50% YTD returns. It is very unlikely that there will be a change in leadership between US stocks and foreign developed stocks, meaning that for the 4th consecutive year US stocks will lead their foreign developed counterparts.

“The Market” as measured by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) is at roughly +6.5% year-to-date.

The second estimate of US 3Q16 GDP showed an uptick in US growth with an expansion from 1.4% last quarter to 3.2% this quarter. Expansion of the US and world economy my not be racing, but it does continue a slow and steady tortoise walk.

3Q16 earnings among S&P 500 companies grew 13.8% year-over-year which was the first positive growth in six quarters. This disconnect between growth in earnings highlights a couple of factors about how markets work. Most would assume that markets would have declined over these past six quarters if earnings were declining. Markets however are a function of supply and demand, and the many variables that move supply and demand are vast.

Inflation appears to be rising, as headline CPI grew by 1.7% year-over-year and the core measure grew 2.1% year-over-year in November.

The Fed raised expectations for inflation and the number of rate hikes for next year. The FOMC expects it will raise rates three times in 2017. Of course we know that the Fed has been very off on most of their predictions and timelines over the last several years. If rates do in fact finally rise, mid and long duration treasuries should be a major underweight in fixed income portions of portfolios.

— Wyatt