With the presidential election still too close to call, we wait. 

While we wait, let’s think about what we do know, and what we expect given the current information. 

What we know: 

ONE: Policy has a greater impact on markets and economies than politics does. 

TWO: Republicans will probably maintain control of the Senate. This means there will most likely be divided government no mattter who ultimately wins the presidency. 

What we expect:

An extrememly narrow Biden electoral win. 

However in either scenario, a Trump or Biden win, there will be divided government. 

It is very unlikely to see any major legislation enacted over the next two years. 

Obamacare and the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act were both passed when one party held control of Congress and the Presidency. 

No other major legislation has been passed in the last 12 years and that is unlikely to change in the next two years. 

Both candidates will try to pass fiscal stimulus. 

Both candidates will continue to increase the national deficit and debt. This could prove inflationary in the longer-term. 

Both candidates might have to deal with the fallout of Obamacare should the Supreme Court deem it unconstitutional. 

The President has the most power dealing with foreign policy, and that is where we will see the biggest changes with a Biden victory. 

Sincerely,

Wyatt Swartz

Financial Adviser, RIA
W. Swartz & Co.
(636) 667-5209 | www.wswartz.com

11/4/2020