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I like to listen the sports radio show The Herd with Colin Cowherd. Colin makes a lot of observations and bold predictions on his show. He also does a segment called Where Colin was Right and Where Colin was Wrong in which he reviews how his predictions panned out.
I am going to do the same, regarding my take on the markets for 2015.
Where I was Right: While the global markets had very flat returns, the bull market continued. An investor should only take a defensive portfolio position if he/she is confident in the imminent oncoming bear market. Otherwise investors should remain fully equitized within the framework of their asset allocation. The dangers of missing out on potential positive returns are great than being hit with potential negative returns.
Where I was Wrong: I fell into the Fed “predicting game” trap. I thought the Fed would raise rates much sooner than they did. I thought we would have at least one rate hike by the end of summer, and the first rate hike did not come until December.
Where I was Right: Large-Cap Outperformance: From a size perspective large-cap, and more specifically large-cap growth outperformed the other size categories 2016. This was the overarching theme of my managed portfolios and it paid off. Large-cap stocks outperformed mid, and small caps. I had portfolios overweight to large and mega caps, and overweight towards growth which outperformed value in 2016.
Where I was Wrong: Financials were essentially flat relative the market in 2015. I expected the financial sector to benefit from rising interest rates and have outperformance which led me to position portfolios with a slight overweight relative to benchmark. The rising rates did not come until December and the outperformance never came.
Where I was Right: On August 21st I made a post advising investors not to panic sell their stock positions. I said that the market appeared to be going through a classic correction and that the right course of action was to hold. It turned out to be a classic correction, which was over with almost as quickly as it started.
Where I was Right: Greece was overblown. In the early part of 2015 there was great worry that the global economy and markets were vulnerable due to problems in Greece. The impact Greece has on the global economy/markets was always overblown, and I said just that.